AN AHP-BASED OPTIMAL DISTRIBUTION MODEL AND ITS APPLICATION IN COVID-19 VACCINATION

COVID-19 is causing a large number of causalities and producing tedious healthcare management problems at a global level. During a pandemic, resource availability and optimal distribution of the resources may save lives. Due to this issue, the authors have proposed an Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) based optimal distribution model. The proposed distribution model advances the AHP and enhances real-time model applicability by eliminating judgmental scale errors. The model development is systematically discussed. Also, the proposed model is utilized as a state-level optimal COVID-19 vaccine distribution model with limited vaccine availability. The COVID-19 vaccine distribution model used 28 Indian states and 7 union territories as the decision elements for the vaccination problem. The state-wise preference weights were calculated using the geometric mean AHP analysis method. The optimal state-level distribution of the COVID-19 vaccine was obtained using preference weights, vaccine availability and the fact that a patient requires exactly rvaccine doses to complete a vaccination schedule. The optimal COVID-19 vaccine distribution along with state and union territory rank, and preference weights were compiled. The obtained results found Kerala, Maharashtra, Uttarakhand, Karnataka, and West Bengal to be the most COVID-19 affected states. In the future, the authors suggest using the proposed model to design an optimal vaccine distribution strategy at the district or country level, and to design a vaccine storage/inventory model to ensure optimal use of a vaccine storage center covering nearby territories. © 2020. All Rights Reserved.

A nonlinear epidemiological model considering asymptotic and quarantine classes for SARS CoV-2 virus.

In this article, we develop a mathematical model considering susceptible, exposed, infected, asymptotic, quarantine/isolation and recovered classes as in case of COVID-19 disease. The facility of quarantine/isolation have been provided to both exposed and infected classes. Asymptotic individuals either recovered without undergo treatment or moved to infected class after some duration. We have formulated the reproduction number for the proposed model. Elasticity and sensitivity analysis indicates that model is more sensitive towards the transmission rate from exposed to infected classes rather than transmission rate from susceptible to exposed class. Analysis of global stability for the proposed model is studied through Lyapunov's function.